🔗 Share this article

It was eight weeks in the past that the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as his coach scolded him for missing a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his performances were an indicator or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. After the England international drilled in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row , after failing to win any of their first six games, find themselves just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?

That’s an exceptionally difficult question to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, even as the positive results have accumulated.

According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club who have just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look curiously susceptible – yet currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with rivals and wait for their star man to bail them out with some precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and once more when facing the Red Devils.

His opener came from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition had more shots and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival the club will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling the ball into the net's top corner forever.

Potential for Growth

Could it be a different scenario in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward may begin to finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he was in Germany.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.

This could contain the potential for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned the young forward now would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial England player.

This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.